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What The Market Says About The Economy

Since the election much has been made of the “Trump Trade” and the proposals that have been articulated during the campaign. Attempts have been made to provide detailed analysis of the consequences of these many plans on economic activity, jobs, interest rates, etc. However, econometric models which are used to make these projections do not capture the behavioral shifts. Moreover, as sophisticated as these models seem, numerous assumptions are made regarding a multitude of variables which must be altered often, thereby changing outcomes. Regression models are based upon historical behavior and data. Consequently, behavioral shifts, exogenous shocks, major policy changes (particularly those that have not occurred for some time) cause the models to generate poor results. Click here for more

By: Frank Mastrapasqua, Ph.D.
Principal, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer

If you have a question or need further information, please contact:

Patrick Snell, CFA, Principal & Portfolio Manager in Nashville at 615-244-8400,

Claude Koontz, CFA, Principal & Portfolio Manager in San Antonio at 210-353-0519,

The information and opinions contained in this report should not be treated as fact or as insight that will produce desired investment results over time. Investment conclusions always bear risk, and that risk may not be reasonable for any particular reader. Obviously the writer, even assuming good intentions, does not know of the reader's particular financial circumstance and therefore is not able to assess the propriety of whether a named security makes sense as part of a given individual, family, or institutional portfolio. Mastrapasqua Asset Management clients may, from time to time, own some of the companies mentioned. We hold out no duty to give readers of this column advanced notification of when we may change an opinion. To our knowledge, none of the information contained in our column would, when it becomes publicly available, have an influence on the valuation of a particular stock. Investors should receive investment advice based on an assessment of their own particular investment circumstances and not on the basis of recommendations in this report. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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